This week’s brawl, “Top 3”, was by far the most popular brawl since HSReplay.net went into Beta, with over 48000 Top 3 games uploaded to the website.

The rules of this brawl are simple: Pick three unique cards, your deck will be composed of 10 copies of each. Find the best combo. It is a variant on the “Top 2” Tavern Brawl that ran a few months ago.

Popularity analysis

So why is this brawl so popular? The games are extremely quick. 65% of games were over by turn 5. And by turn 10, that number goes up to 96%.

In fact, early concedes happened so much that we had to compensate for it quite a bit while gathering statistics - nearly 50% of games were over before the opponent revealed a single card!

Taking a closer look at how our users played this Tavern Brawl, we see that on average, seven Top 3 games were played per user, nearly twice as many as the games played on Cart Crash at the Crossroads.

Deck winrates

In the following table, we look at the top decks this brawl. By far the most popular deck was Mill Druid running Coldlight Oracle, Innervate and Naturalize, run by nearly 20% of players, despite the deck barely making the top 15 by winrate.

The highest winrate deck was Annoy-o-Tron / Mechwarper / Metaltooth Leaper, a variant on the popular Mechwarper / Metaltooth Leaper from the Top 2 brawl.

Disclaimer: All decks in the following tables have at least 100 games accounted for.

Deck	Win Rate	Popularity
Annoy-o-Tron | Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper	72.3%	5.2%
Malchezaar’s Imp | Silverware Golem | Soulfire	69.5%	5.8%
Barnes | Deathwing, Dragonlord | Innervate	68.6%	0.7%
Barnes | Innervate | Ragnaros the Firelord	67.6%	0.9%
Fist of Jaraxxus | Malchezaar’s Imp | Soulfire	67.4%	4.7%
Bolster | Shieldbearer | Target Dummy	67.3%	0.7%
Annoy-o-Tron | Gorillabot A-3 | Mechwarper	67.1%	0.3%
Annoy-o-Tron | Iron Sensei | Mechwarper	67.0%	0.2%
Barnes | Innervate | Y’Shaarj, Rage Unbound	65.4%	1.4%
Frostbolt | Ice Lance | Mana Wyrm	65.3%	0.2%
Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper | Tracking	61.8%	0.3%
Everyfin is Awesome | Murloc Tidehunter | Murloc Tinyfin	61.1%	0.9%
Gorillabot A-3 | Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper	60.7%	0.7%
Coldlight Oracle | Innervate | Naturalize	60.7%	19.4%
Innervate | Living Roots | Power of the Wild	59.9%	0.3%
Gorillabot A-3 | Iron Sensei | Mechwarper	59.8%	0.2%
Lightning Bolt | Rockbiter Weapon | Tunnel Trogg	59.8%	0.2%
Arcane Intellect | Fireball | Ice Block	58.5%	0.8%
Arcane Missiles | Frostbolt | Mana Wyrm	58.1%	0.3%
Enhance-o Mechano | Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper	57.5%	1.0%
Everyfin is Awesome | Murloc Tidecaller | Murloc Tinyfin	57.4%	0.3%
Arcane Missiles | Babbling Book | Mana Wyrm	56.9%	0.6%
Frostbolt | Ice Block | Ice Lance	55.1%	0.6%
Innervate | Naturalize | Prince Malchezaar	54.9%	0.3%
Bolster | Protect the King! | Shieldbearer	54.7%	0.4%
Arcane Missiles | Mana Wyrm | Mirror Image	53.7%	0.7%
Innervate | Prince Malchezaar | Raven Idol	53.6%	0.3%
Astral Communion | Innervate | Prince Malchezaar	53.2%	0.9%
Everyfin is Awesome | Grimscale Oracle | Murloc Tinyfin	52.9%	0.2%
Circle of Healing | Embrace the Shadow | Prince Malchezaar	52.9%	0.2%
Arcane Intellect | Frostbolt | Sorcerer’s Apprentice	52.9%	0.3%
Bolster | Protect the King! | Target Dummy	52.8%	0.2%
Bloodsail Raider | Dread Corsair | Upgrade!	51.7%	0.3%
Cold Blood | Conceal | Young Dragonhawk	51.4%	1.3%
Astral Communion | Innervate | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End	51.0%	0.3%
Cold Blood | Conceal | Worgen Infiltrator	50.5%	0.2%
Barnes | Innervate | Prince Malchezaar	48.7%	0.5%
Fiery War Axe | Heroic Strike | Upgrade!	48.1%	0.5%
Arcane Intellect | Forgotten Torch | Sorcerer’s Apprentice	46.3%	1.8%
Circle of Healing | Embrace the Shadow | Flash Heal	46.1%	0.4%
Frostbolt | Ice Lance | Sorcerer’s Apprentice	45.8%	0.5%
Arcane Missiles | Frostbolt | Ice Lance	45.1%	0.2%
Fist of Jaraxxus | Silverware Golem | Soulfire	43.8%	0.7%
Innervate | Prince Malchezaar | Wild Growth	42.0%	0.5%
Innervate | Raven Idol | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End	41.7%	0.8%
Divine Spirit | Inner Fire | Shieldbearer	39.9%	0.4%
Divine Spirit | Inner Fire | Lightwell	39.8%	0.3%
Innervate | Nourish | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End	34.6%	0.2%
Innervate | Wild Growth | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End	33.4%	1.3%
Doomsayer | Mind Blast | Resurrect	33.0%	0.2%
Arcane Intellect | Ice Lance | Sorcerer’s Apprentice	31.9%	0.2%
Doomsayer | Resurrect | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End	31.6%	0.4%

Mill Druid analysis

Disclaimer: Due to the extremely high amounts of early concedes, the data here may be biased.

It is quite incredible that Mill Druid is over three times as popular as the next most popular deck (Malchezaar’s Imp / Silverware Golem / Soulfire, sitting just below 6%).

So what does this deck beat? Here are the top 5 matchups in favour of Mill Druid:

• Innervate / Wild Growth / Yogg-Saron - 97.5% winrate
• Innervate / Raven Idol / Yogg-Saron - 92% winrate
• Arcane Missiles / Mana Wyrm / Mirror Image - 75% winrate
• Malchezaar’s Imp / Silverware Golem / Soulfire - 75% winrate
• Arcane Intellect / Forgotten Torch / Sorcerer’s Apprentice - 70% winrate

We see that Mill Druid beats Yogg-Saron decks nearly all the time.

And what beats Mill Druid?

• Annoy-o-Tron / Mechwarper / Metaltooth Leaper - 82% winrate
• Astral Communion / Innervate / Prince Malchezaar - 67% winrate
• Fist of Jaraxxus / Malchezaar’s Imp / Soulfire - 59% winrate

Winner of the Brawl

With a whopping 82% winrate against the most popular deck of the brawl, as well as a strong lead on all other decks’ winrates, the Annoy-o-Tron/Mechwarper/Metaltooth Leaper combo was the absolute best deck to run this week!

As it turns out, 31 damage on the board on turn 3 is preeeettty good.

Contribute

We have a special announcement: HSReplay.net will go live today! We are extremely excited to finally release it.

These reports would not be possible without the data contributed by all our beta testers. We wanted to thank everybody who participated in the beta, submitted feedback and helped us improve the site.

We would also like to encourage the statistically-minded players out there to come check us out on Freenode.net IRC, in the #hearthsim channel and join us to help us improve these brawl reports.

Stay tuned for the release later today - but if you can’t wait, you can download the HDT beta now!

The HSReplay.net team