Brawl Report: Top 3
This week’s brawl, “Top 3”, was by far the most popular brawl since HSReplay.net went into Beta, with over 48000 Top 3 games uploaded to the website.
The rules of this brawl are simple: Pick three unique cards, your deck will be composed of 10 copies of each. Find the best combo. It is a variant on the “Top 2” Tavern Brawl that ran a few months ago.
So why is this brawl so popular? The games are extremely quick. 65% of games were over by turn 5. And by turn 10, that number goes up to 96%.
In fact, early concedes happened so much that we had to compensate for it quite a bit while gathering statistics - nearly 50% of games were over before the opponent revealed a single card!
Taking a closer look at how our users played this Tavern Brawl, we see that on average, seven Top 3 games were played per user, nearly twice as many as the games played on Cart Crash at the Crossroads.
In the following table, we look at the top decks this brawl. By far the most popular deck was Mill Druid running Coldlight Oracle, Innervate and Naturalize, run by nearly 20% of players, despite the deck barely making the top 15 by winrate.
The highest winrate deck was Annoy-o-Tron / Mechwarper / Metaltooth Leaper, a variant on the popular Mechwarper / Metaltooth Leaper from the Top 2 brawl.
Disclaimer: All decks in the following tables have at least 100 games accounted for.
|Annoy-o-Tron | Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper||72.3%||5.2%|
|Malchezaar’s Imp | Silverware Golem | Soulfire||69.5%||5.8%|
|Barnes | Deathwing, Dragonlord | Innervate||68.6%||0.7%|
|Barnes | Innervate | Ragnaros the Firelord||67.6%||0.9%|
|Fist of Jaraxxus | Malchezaar’s Imp | Soulfire||67.4%||4.7%|
|Bolster | Shieldbearer | Target Dummy||67.3%||0.7%|
|Annoy-o-Tron | Gorillabot A-3 | Mechwarper||67.1%||0.3%|
|Annoy-o-Tron | Iron Sensei | Mechwarper||67.0%||0.2%|
|Barnes | Innervate | Y’Shaarj, Rage Unbound||65.4%||1.4%|
|Frostbolt | Ice Lance | Mana Wyrm||65.3%||0.2%|
|Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper | Tracking||61.8%||0.3%|
|Everyfin is Awesome | Murloc Tidehunter | Murloc Tinyfin||61.1%||0.9%|
|Gorillabot A-3 | Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper||60.7%||0.7%|
|Coldlight Oracle | Innervate | Naturalize||60.7%||19.4%|
|Innervate | Living Roots | Power of the Wild||59.9%||0.3%|
|Gorillabot A-3 | Iron Sensei | Mechwarper||59.8%||0.2%|
|Lightning Bolt | Rockbiter Weapon | Tunnel Trogg||59.8%||0.2%|
|Arcane Intellect | Fireball | Ice Block||58.5%||0.8%|
|Arcane Missiles | Frostbolt | Mana Wyrm||58.1%||0.3%|
|Enhance-o Mechano | Mechwarper | Metaltooth Leaper||57.5%||1.0%|
|Everyfin is Awesome | Murloc Tidecaller | Murloc Tinyfin||57.4%||0.3%|
|Arcane Missiles | Babbling Book | Mana Wyrm||56.9%||0.6%|
|Frostbolt | Ice Block | Ice Lance||55.1%||0.6%|
|Innervate | Naturalize | Prince Malchezaar||54.9%||0.3%|
|Bolster | Protect the King! | Shieldbearer||54.7%||0.4%|
|Arcane Missiles | Mana Wyrm | Mirror Image||53.7%||0.7%|
|Innervate | Prince Malchezaar | Raven Idol||53.6%||0.3%|
|Astral Communion | Innervate | Prince Malchezaar||53.2%||0.9%|
|Everyfin is Awesome | Grimscale Oracle | Murloc Tinyfin||52.9%||0.2%|
|Circle of Healing | Embrace the Shadow | Prince Malchezaar||52.9%||0.2%|
|Arcane Intellect | Frostbolt | Sorcerer’s Apprentice||52.9%||0.3%|
|Bolster | Protect the King! | Target Dummy||52.8%||0.2%|
|Bloodsail Raider | Dread Corsair | Upgrade!||51.7%||0.3%|
|Cold Blood | Conceal | Young Dragonhawk||51.4%||1.3%|
|Astral Communion | Innervate | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End||51.0%||0.3%|
|Cold Blood | Conceal | Worgen Infiltrator||50.5%||0.2%|
|Barnes | Innervate | Prince Malchezaar||48.7%||0.5%|
|Fiery War Axe | Heroic Strike | Upgrade!||48.1%||0.5%|
|Arcane Intellect | Forgotten Torch | Sorcerer’s Apprentice||46.3%||1.8%|
|Circle of Healing | Embrace the Shadow | Flash Heal||46.1%||0.4%|
|Frostbolt | Ice Lance | Sorcerer’s Apprentice||45.8%||0.5%|
|Arcane Missiles | Frostbolt | Ice Lance||45.1%||0.2%|
|Fist of Jaraxxus | Silverware Golem | Soulfire||43.8%||0.7%|
|Innervate | Prince Malchezaar | Wild Growth||42.0%||0.5%|
|Innervate | Raven Idol | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End||41.7%||0.8%|
|Divine Spirit | Inner Fire | Shieldbearer||39.9%||0.4%|
|Divine Spirit | Inner Fire | Lightwell||39.8%||0.3%|
|Innervate | Nourish | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End||34.6%||0.2%|
|Innervate | Wild Growth | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End||33.4%||1.3%|
|Doomsayer | Mind Blast | Resurrect||33.0%||0.2%|
|Arcane Intellect | Ice Lance | Sorcerer’s Apprentice||31.9%||0.2%|
|Doomsayer | Resurrect | Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End||31.6%||0.4%|
Mill Druid analysis
Disclaimer: Due to the extremely high amounts of early concedes, the data here may be biased.
It is quite incredible that Mill Druid is over three times as popular as the next most popular deck (Malchezaar’s Imp / Silverware Golem / Soulfire, sitting just below 6%).
So what does this deck beat? Here are the top 5 matchups in favour of Mill Druid:
- Innervate / Wild Growth / Yogg-Saron - 97.5% winrate
- Innervate / Raven Idol / Yogg-Saron - 92% winrate
- Arcane Missiles / Mana Wyrm / Mirror Image - 75% winrate
- Malchezaar’s Imp / Silverware Golem / Soulfire - 75% winrate
- Arcane Intellect / Forgotten Torch / Sorcerer’s Apprentice - 70% winrate
We see that Mill Druid beats Yogg-Saron decks nearly all the time.
And what beats Mill Druid?
- Annoy-o-Tron / Mechwarper / Metaltooth Leaper - 82% winrate
- Astral Communion / Innervate / Prince Malchezaar - 67% winrate
- Fist of Jaraxxus / Malchezaar’s Imp / Soulfire - 59% winrate
Winner of the Brawl
With a whopping 82% winrate against the most popular deck of the brawl, as well as a strong lead on all other decks’ winrates, the Annoy-o-Tron/Mechwarper/Metaltooth Leaper combo was the absolute best deck to run this week!
As it turns out, 31 damage on the board on turn 3 is preeeettty good.
We have a special announcement: HSReplay.net will go live today! We are extremely excited to finally release it.
These reports would not be possible without the data contributed by all our beta testers. We wanted to thank everybody who participated in the beta, submitted feedback and helped us improve the site.
We would also like to encourage the statistically-minded players out there to come check us out
on Freenode.net IRC, in the
#hearthsim channel and join us to help us improve these brawl reports.
Stay tuned for the release later today - but if you can’t wait, you can download the HDT beta now!
The HSReplay.net team